At 03:59 MSK on June 27, 2008 (23:59 June 26, 2008 UTC) the Space Forces carried out a launch of a Proton-K launcher (with DM-3 booster stage) from the Baykonur site (launch pad No. 24 of the launch complex No. 81). The Space Forces reported that the satellite delivered into orbit will work as part of the early-warning system.

The satellite will most likely be named Cosmos-2440. It received NORAD number ??? and international designation 2008-033?. According to NORAD orbital data, the satellite No. 33108 is deployed on a nearly geosyncronous orbit at about 90E and is drifting eastward with a speed of about 1.5 degree/day. [UPDATE 07/01/08: At this point it is not clear which of the several objects catalogued by NORAD is the Cosmos-2440 satellite.]

Cosmos-2440 is a satellite of the 71Kh6 type, which work as part of the US-KMO system. It is likely that it will be stabilized in the 80E point at first - US-KMO satellites are normally deployed in that station before moving to their permanent positions.

It is not clear yet if Cosmos-2440 will replace the only currently operational US-KMO satellite, Cosmos-2379, which has been working since 2001 and is close to the end of life span demonstrated by spacecraft of its class. In August-September 2007 Cosmos-2379 was moved from the 24W position that it occupied for most of its operational life to its current position at 12E. It is possible that the transfer was made in anticipation of the upcoming launch of Cosmos-2440. The launch was probably scheduled for the second half of 2006 or for 2007, but was postponed when the Proton-K launcher was given to a civilian program.

Speaking at the graduation ceremony at the Rocket Forces Academy, Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of the Rocket Forces, mentioned that the Rocket Forces are completing an upgrade of the command and control system. According to Solovtsov, this system, which he called a "third-generation system", provides "traditional" capabilities of sending launch orders, receiving reports, and monitoring status of individual missiles. It also apparently provides the Rocket Forces with the "automated" capability to change attack options and re-target missiles. Solovtsov underscored that the command and control system includes a number of redundant relay, radio, and satellite communication channels that allow to deliver a launch order directly to missiles silos.

Most of these capabilities existed before. As I understand, the ability to deliver launch orders to individual silos was one of the central features of the Signal-A system that was deployed in the 1980s (Signal-A or its modification Signal-M may be the "second-generation" systems that the new one is replacing). At the same time, the flexible targeting capability appears to be new.

According to Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, first RS-24 missiles will be deployed in Teykovo. Solovtsov confirmed that the Rocket Forces and the industry expect to complete the RS-24 flight tests program with the two launches scheduled for this year and, if the tests are successful, begin deployment of RS-24 in 2009.

The division in Teykovo currently has six Topol-M missiles with nine more missiles expected to be added by the end of 2008.

Novosti kosmonavtiki obtained an official confirmation from NPO PM, manufacturer of the Strela/Gonets series communication satellites, that the three satellites launched on May 23, 2008 are not Gonets-M satellites.

That explains why the satellites received Cosmos designations and not Gonets-M numbers. They are most likely part of the military counterpart of the Gonets-DM communication system. This system, which is replacing the old Strela-3, is probably what is known as Rodnik.

The difference between the military and civilian satellites is unlikely to be significant - NPO PM at some point referred to the spacecraft launched in May 2008 as Gonets-M. Still, designations certainly matter, so I corrected the May entry that described the launch.

The first launch of satellites of both new systems took place on December 21, 2005 - one satellite in that launch was Gonets-M No. 1, the other apparently was the first Rodnik. If that was the case, then the Cosmos satellites launched on May 23, 2008 continued deployment of Rodnik constellation. A launch of three Gonets-M satellites is scheduled for 2009.

Yuri Solomonov, the chief designer of the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, said in a recent interview to the VPK newspaper that flight tests of the RS-24 missile (a MIRVed version of Topol-M) are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2008. According to Solomonov, if the tests are successful, the first RS-24 missiles will be operationally deployed in 2009. Since the deployment may begin before the START Treaty expires in December 2009, this most likely means that Russia has found a way to declare RS-24 as a new missile.

Interestingly enough, Solomonov made a good case against MIRVing Topol-M. He rightly pointed out that if there is a limit on the number of warheads, it would make more sense to spread those warheads among many (survivable) launchers rather than concentrate them on a small number of large-throw weight missiles. As I understand, he aimed his remarks on the SS-19 follow-on project advocated by NPOmash, but it is clear that these arguments work against MIRVed Topol-M/RS-24 as well.

On survivability of Topol-M (whether MIRVed or not) Solomonov was quite categorical in insisting that road-mobile missiles are not vulnerable to detection from space. This is one more battle that he has been fighting - Russian press is full of opinions suggesting that U.S. satellites can easily detect road-mobile missiles on patrol. I tend to trust Solomonov on this one - even if detecting some missiles some time might be possible, detecting all of them with a high degree of certainty is most certainly not.

As it turns out, the missile division in Yurya has not been completely liquidated - the START data shows that it still has nine (non-deployed) Topol missiles there. However, starting in July 2007, START data exchange lists Yur'ya as a test range, along with Plesetsk and Kapustin Yar.

I don't think this necessarily means that Yur'ya will be used for missile launches - as I understand it was never used for missile launches (Svobodnyy, Kostroma and Kartaly were). But it is a bit unusual that the site was declared a test range. Maybe the Rocket Forces have some plans for it.

Robert Gates was right when he said today that the main reason Russia is investing most of its effort into nuclear forces is that reforming conventional forces is much more difficult. We know how it works - it's easier to look for your coins under the lamppost or, in this case, to pretend that nuclear forces have something to do with country's security just because you know how to build missiles.

But Gates does not seem to realize that he is making the same mistake when he says that Russia's investment into nuclear forces "underscores the importance of [U.S.] sustaining a valid nuclear deterrent, a modern nuclear deterrent" as he "hammers home importance of Air Force nuke mission."  Instead of making necessary but hard decisions about the role of nuclear weapons (I would suggest removing nuclear weapons from the Air Force as a good start) he is pretending that if only everybody tries harder things would be as simple and orderly as they used to be during the Cold War.

Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense, fired U.S. Air Force's military and civilian chiefs for a series of mishaps related to nuclear weapons in the Air Force's custody. The most serious, of course, was the incident at the Minot Air Force base in August 2007.

This goes a step further that firing of colonel-rank commanders in November 2007, which followed the initial investigation of the incident. It not surprising that that first set of measures failed to change anything. I wrote at the time that

... the incident at Minot is a sign of a deeper process and that short of starting a new Cold War, no amount of organizational change could provide the military with the sense of mission required to handle nuclear weapons with the attention they deserve.

This is more or less what we see today. Hans Kristensen reported that the Air Force did not even properly registered the Minot incident in its database. And just last Sunday, the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot Air Base failed to pass a nuclear inspection.

I doubt that the current change of Air Force's leadership would change anything as well. There is a better choice and it is still available - remove nuclear weapons from the Air Force.

Speaking to journalists about a month ago, Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, gave us some interesting numbers about the state of readiness of the missile force and about mobile missile patrol rates. (Thanks to reader R for sending me the link.)

According to Solovtsov, the Strategic Rocket Forces managed to bring the number of missiles on high alert ("ready for immediate use") to the 96% goal set by the President. It is interesting to note that last year Solovtsov reported that 97 to 98 missiles out of every hundred were in launch-ready state.

Also, Solovtsov seemed to say that 93% of road-mobile missiles were on patrol during the first half of 2008 (that probably should have been "first four months", since he was speaking in the beginning of May). The exact words that he was reported to use were "number of tactical exercises during which missile regiments were deployed on patrol routes." This choice of words leaves a possibility that some of these exercises were not combat patrols, but I think it is unlikely. In 2007 that rate was 90% and in 2006 - 78%.

This is a fairly high patrol rate. Most estimates in the open literature (including mine) assumed that missiles are normally kept in stationary shelters and rarely go on patrol.

On June 5, 2008, Russia shut down the ADE-5 plutonium production reactor at the Siberian Chemical Combine, ending plutonium production in Seversk/Tomsk-7. The other plutonium production reactor in Seversk - ADE-4 - was shut down on April 20, 2008.

The only remaining plutonium production reactor - ADE-2 in Zheleznogorsk/Krasnoyarsk-26 will continue to operate until 2010. Since 1994, the plutonium produced by the three reactors was stored in oxide form and was not used for weapon purposes.

UPDATE 06/09/08: The reactor was stopped at 1:03pm local time. This post on Totalwonkerr.com has links to photos and videos.